Our Spanish expert Phil Kitromilides believes the price of 10/11 for the Portuguese to score in a sixth successive Camp Nou Clasico is just too good to resist this evening
Over the last two years these two sides have faced each other, on average, once every couple of months, meaning the world’s most famous fixture has taken on a familiar feel to it.
Tonight’s encounter will be the 15th meeting in the last 22 months, and there are definite patterns that have emerged of which punters should be aware.
For example, Both Teams To Score has paid out in each of the last 11 matches between the sides, which is perhaps why Paddy Power offer it at just 2/5 (1.40).
Another bet which has consistently proven to be the correct selection is backing over 2.5 goals, seemingly an absolute banker with these two powerhouses of attacking football and a wager which has paid out in nine of the last 10 Clasicos. Yet few will be rushing to invest in it, at the price of 4/11 (1.36).
More attractive odds are to be found in the outright market, with Barcelona offered at 8/11 (1.72) and Madrid available at 7/2 (4.50).
An argument could be made for either result, with Barca unbeaten at home for 22 matches, and Madrid the last side to have inflicted a defeat upon the Catalans at
Indeed it is worth noting that three of Madrid’s last four results away to Barcelona would be enough for them to progress to the final of the cup this evening and the price of 13/8 (2.63) for los Blancos to qualify for the next round looks tempting.
However, having scored in each of his last five visits to Camp Nou, and without doubt in the form of his life, the price of 10/11 (1.91) for Cristiano Ronaldo to score at any time is surely too tempting to resist. These odds are double what you would normally get for Ronaldo against any other side (in some cases treble) and Barca’s defence is not solid enough to warrant such a generous price.
The Catalans have conceded in each of their last 11 matches in all competitions and with Madrid needing to score to progress, backing Ronaldo to net at any time is surely a wise investment.
For a value bet, try backing a draw at 3/1 (4.00) ,with each of the last two Clasicos ending as stalemates as well as three of the last five at the Camp Nou.
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports anchor working on TV in Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.